Honestly, sports wouldn’t be nearly as much fun without something to argue about. Think about how fans anxiously await something like the college football Top 25 each week and then rip it apart on social media. We’ve argued that polls are useless in reflecting what’s actually happening until after the third and more likely, fourth week of play. If you look at pre-season polling and where teams are today you’ll understand why. Just one of many reasons we wait until we are several weeks in before releasing the ACC Football Rankings.
This year we’re headed for one nasty bit of blowback when it comes to the 24-team College Football Playoffs and how teams are ranked. We’re not going to pretend that having this many teams in a race for a national title is a good idea. If we had a piece of the financial pie we’d be pushing it down your throat. For the most part fans are beginning to look at all of the nonsense going on, from Congress, to the NCAA, the CFP plus conference and team power plays as a sure-fire way to destroy college football as we know it.
It struck our team that perhaps having a ranking system similar in structure to KenPom for basketball might be a great way to even things out….or create a Level Field when it comes to who belongs where. It took some time to determine what factors were important and how to get rid of as much ‘subjectivity’ as possible. It’s not easy to watch one team win or lose without some level of did they pass the ‘eye test’ or my ‘gut tells me’ playing a role in the final decision. So, we built as much objectivity into the equation as possible.
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We’ve developed some test runs, some with multiple years worth of data and others with just last year and then this year through Week 8. Some of the results are what we expected while others were….well, surprising. We’re not ready to release our first Level Field Index just yet but we wanted to give you a heads up that it’s coming and yes, you’ll have something to argue about.
What we can tell you at this point is that there is work to do in the ACC if there is to be more than one team in the playoffs. Miami is a lock however Wake Forest is just outside the 24 while Louisville is 8 spots out and both SMU and Virginia Tech, both of whom are in the ACC Nation Top 5 will struggle to reach the playoffs without clean sweeps for the rest of their football season including an ACC title win for SMU.
What are the games that each of these teams must win to help lock in a playoff spot?
- Miami – A win over Notre Dame is critical to locking in a higher seed. If they add Virginia Tech to the W column it only helps. BTW – If you thought the Canes were a No. 1 seed because of the AP, think twice.
- Wake Forest – Unfortunately for the Deacs the only chain mover on the regular season list is SMU. If they end up playing Miami for the ACC Championship and win it would be the key to a playoff spot.
- Louisville – The Cardinals only have Kentucky on the schedule but a win might be enough to lift them into a playoff spot….but it will depend on others currently holding spots to lose as well.
- SMU – The Mustangs need a clean run in the regular season to lift them to a shot at Miami in the ACC Championship. The wins that will help the most are Virginia Tech, Wake Forest and Notre Dame. If they win in Charlotte it should be a lock.
- Virginia Tech – SMU will help push the Hokies up a bit but a win over Miami could be just enough to reach the bottom tier of the 24 team playoffs. It’s a big maybe.
There are a lot of woulda, shoulda, coulda football games and this is where players and coaches begin to see the grand picture. It’s sobering. We look forward to sharing the LFI with you soon.
