Football

It’s official. This will be the last ACC Football Championship Game and the final opportunity for Miami to own a conference title trophy. The Canes do have a bit of a roadblock to deal with though. Before we get too far ahead of ourselves let’s lay the groundwork for all 5 of the teams in the ACC Power Rankings.

Miami – The Canes control their own destiny. If they win their remaining games against Duke, Virginia Tech and Boston College, they’ll finish a perfect 9-0 and easily clinch the top spot in Charlotte.
Wake Forest – Just like Miami, the Deacs control their own destiny. If they win their remaining games against SMU, Georgia Tech and Duke they’ll be guaranteed a spot in the championship game.
Louisville – The Cardinals must win out and get some help as well. Louisville must win against North Carolina and Pitt to finish 7-2. Where do they need help? Because they lost their head-to-head against Wake Forest, the Cardinals need for Wake too lose at least twice down the stretch to finish behind them in the win-percentage standings.
SMU – The Mustangs have a massive opportunity to steal control this weekend against Wake Forest. SMU needs to win out against Wake and Stanford to finish 7-2 and they’ll hold the head-to-head against the Deacs. If Miami trips up, a 7-2 SMU team would put themselves right in the thick of the analytics based “Team Success Ranking” tiebreakers. More about that in a moment.
Duke – The defending ACC football champions need chaos to make a return trip to Charlotte. First, the Blue Devils need to pull an upset against Miami this weekend. To have any mathematical shot, Duke must win out against Miami, Clemson and Wake Forest. Even if Duke wins out to finish 7-2, they need SMU and Louisville to lose again, and they would need the ACC’s new SportSource Analytics formula to favor their overall body of work over a tied Miami or Wake Forest squad.

How The ACC Football Tiebreaker Works

The top two teams eligible for the championship game must have the highest conference winning percentage. Teams that play an alternate number of conference games (8 vs 9) are considered tied if they have the same number of conference wins or the same number of conference losses.

Head-to-head competition is always the primary tiebreaker if all tied teams have played each other.
When step one doesn’t apply (such as multi-team ties where everyone hasn’t played everyone), the tiebreaker moves to the Team Success Ranking provided by SportSource Analytics to evaluate the strongest overall body of work.
The third step in this process is the Commissioner’s Draw. If teams are still deadlocked, the representative is chosen via a draw administered by the ACC Commissioner.
The final step – Once a team is placed into the championship game (or eliminated) through these steps, the tiebreaker resets for any remaining teams.

There’s only two football teams in the ACC showing significant movement in this week’s Power Rankings. Virginia Tech drops 3 spots following their loss to SMU and Florida State gets a 3 spot boost with a win over Boston College.

ACC Football Power Rankings – Week 11

The Contenders: Miami’s loss came from outside the league at Notre Dame, 31-24. It drops the Canes to 8-1 overall but they’re still 6-0 in the ACC and own the head-to-head with Wake. Wake Forest crushed an FCS opponent, 77-0 which doesn’t move them in the ACC Nation LFI. The final felt mostly like the coaching staff sending a signal to poll voters and committee members. SMU and Wake this weekend is our tell game.

Louisville rolled Georgia Tech and kept the team in the discussion. The Cardinals face off with the Tar Heels on Saturday. SMU woke up and delivered a 51-28 outcome against Virginia Tech. Duke delivered a solid 41-3 win at NC State. They have the perfect opportunity to throw a hand grenade into the ACC with a win over Miami.

The Muddle: Let’s just call it a circle. Pitt beat VT, VT beat Clemson, Clemson beat UNC and UNC beat Pitt. You really couldn’t ask more of the ACC in football when it comes to mayhem. Florida State finally handed Mike Norvell his papers and rumors galore are swirling about other coaches within the ACC being targeted as the next Seminoles head football coach.

The Strugglers: Coaching questions and chaos. Is Tony Elliott safe at Virginia? That would depend on who you ask. We know what happened at NC State and what direction they are headed. Stanford seems ok. There’s lots of ruckus on the interwebs over at Cal. And to say there’s some big disappointment out there among Georgia Tech fans is an understatement. And guess what, the head coach is listening.

Who’s playing in a football bowl this post-season? Locked in – Miami, Wake Forest, Louisville, SMU, Duke, Clemson, Pitt and Virginia Tech. On the cusp, North Carolina at 5-4. Two games to go, Florida State, Stanford, Virginia, NC State, Boston College and Syracuse.

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