The Top 5 ACC Football teams are clearer after another brutal wake-up weekend for teams. The big question is becoming who will face off with Miami in Charlotte for the ACC Championship? Let’s just assume (a dangerous exercise) that the Canes will end up on top and be the team to beat. Right now, Miami is the only unbeaten team left, and only one conference foe has gotten within 13 of them and a final of 41-13 at Clemson settled the question about who was the best team in the conference. For Miami a heated cross-state rivalry game is on the plate as Florida State visits this weekend.
Wake Forest only has one loss and it was at home to Miami. They’ve won at Purdue and Louisville and just went into Raleigh and defeated NC State 38-14. This is the best resume in the conference below Miami.
SMU has won at Florida State and they lost by 10 points at Louisville. The Mustangs are solid but not dominant, and they edged Boston College by only 9. They’ll be hosting Virginia on Saturday and frankly this will be a real test for both teams.
Louisville is the contrarian pick among the Top 5. All three losses were by exactly 3 points, including at Ole Miss, and they beat SMU by 10 and FSU by 24. The record, 3-3, 2-2 is misleading; this team is better than .500.
Finally among the Top 5 comes Duke. The Blue Devils sport a 4-1, 1-1 record. The loss to Georgia Tech hurts. Before that, though they won at Illinois and handled Stanford easily. North Carolina comes to Durham this week and the Tar Heels have been slowly emerging from the muck.
Football
We’ve got ‘Contenders’, the ‘Muddle’ and the ‘Strugglers’ in this week’s ACC Nation Football Power Rankings. The ‘Muddle’ is simply a muddied up mix in the middle and we couldn’t think of a better word to use in explaining this group.
Football – The Muddle
- Pitt – The Panthers record in most cases would have them higher than No. 6 but after losing to North Carolina (at home), and the loss of starting QB Mason Heintschel to a torn ACL it changes what this team is moving forward. Saturday will be a test.
- Clemson – They have two big losses on their record. LSU, 51-10 and Miami, 41-13. The wins over North Carolina and Cal keep them in the mix, but the ceiling is visible.
- North Carolina – Honestly, the road win at Pitt is the best thing they’ve done. We’re keeping the losses at Clemson and Notre Dame in the back of our minds as they were, ‘respectable’.
- Florida State – They lost by 24 at Louisville, but they also beat Virginia, 38-7. Just who are these Noles?
- Virginia – The conference record is better than the play. They lost to West Virginia, got blown out in Tallahassee, and needed everything to get past Syracuse by 3.
- Cal – Their win over Virginia Tech is the best among the lot, but they also lost to UNLV.
- Virginia Tech – They’ve lost two straight, and losing at Call stings more than losing by 2 to Pitt. Georgia Tech visits Saturday. It’s a game that both teams need.
Football – The Strugglers
- NC State – Beating Louisville looks like an outlier next to losing by 26 to Virginia and by 24 to Wake Forest.
- Georgia Tech – They beat Duke but lost to Stanford. That’s hard to explain.
- Syracuse – They’re winless in the ACC, but two of those three losses were by 3 points. Bad luck plays some part.
- Boston College – Their wins came over Rutgers and Maine, and they beat Maine by only 6.
- Stanford – In their last two games they lost to Wake and Notre Dame by a combined score of 115-10. The Georgia Tech win is the only thing keeping this from being uglier.
The two picks most likely to be argued over by football fans are Louisville at 4 and Florida State above Virginia. To defend both: one is based on margins, the other on head-to-head.
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Football – The ACC Championship
Look, it’s never too early to talk about the football championship game. Afterall, it’s just talk, but it gives a place to launch this discussion which is drawing closer in time. Here’s where we start, Miami. The Canes have already defeated Wake and Clemson, and they don’t play SMU or Louisville. So who takes the second spot in this game?
SMU, narrowly over Wake Forest. Wake is the better team right now, which is why they are ranked higher. But SMU has the easier road to Charlotte.
Wake, 3-1, and SMU, 2-1 each have one ACC loss. Here’s where the fun begins. Wake plays at SMU on November 14 and that effectively a semifinal. Whoever wins probably finishes 8-1 and gets to face Miami.
- SMU’s Remaining ACC Games – Virginia, Cal, at Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, at Stanford. Four of the six are in Dallas, including the Wake game (as mentioned), and the two road trips are to the 15th and 17th ranked teams in our rankings.
- Wake’s Remaining ACC Games – at Cal, Virginia, at SMU, at Georgia Tech, Duke. That’s three road games, and they close with Duke, the best team either side has left besides each other.
Wake Forest has have one advantage that SMU doesn’t. The Deacs already beat Louisville, and SMU lost to the Cards. If this turns into a three-way tie at the top, which is very possible, that head-to-head result could favor Wake. Still, SMU has home field for the deciding game and a softer schedule around it, so we’ll put them slightly ahead.
Football – Just In Case You Were Wondering
Louisville has the softest remaining schedule of the four (Syracuse, Stanford, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Pitt) and could easily go 7-2. But they already lost to Wake and NC State, so they need Wake and SMU to each lose twice. That’s possible but unlikely.
Duke has the hardest path: North Carolina, Virginia, Boston College, NC State, at Miami, Clemson, and at Wake. With seven ACC Games left and a loss already on the board, getting to one loss is a long shot. Going 7-2 is more realistic, and that probably isn’t enough.
So percentage wise let’s drop these numbers for the time being until one or more teams prove otherwise: SMU 40%, Wake 35%, Louisville 15%, Duke 10%. These are rough estimates. If Wake wins at Cal the numbers could swing in their direction.
Yes, we’re not anywhere near the end of the season but that doesn’t stop media from projecting where teams will be playing in Bowls. Some of the more fascinating match-ups include: Virginia Tech and Penn State, Florida and North Carolina, SMU and Oklahoma State, Wake Forest and Oregon and for the playoffs, Miami against Texas in the Quarterfinal Peach Bowl and moving on to the Semifinal Orange Bowl to play Alabama.
