The Level Field Index (LFI) is a new approach to gauging college football teams and how they should rank among the 24-team College Football Playoff system (first release Tuesday, November 3, 7:00-8:00pm ET). Like most systems we’ve run the LFI through multiple tests, made adjustments along the way and we’re confident it will upset many a fan. That’s not our goal. We wanted a system to provides a fair and equitable look at teams and we’ve done our best to take the subjective parts out of it that seem to permeate CFP.
In our in-house run last week Miami was the only team in the rankings. Wake Forest was considered the first team out at No. 25 but they have moved up this week and are now in the pool.
Here’s a quick look at how the LFI works –
- No preseason, no reputation – The biggest difference from the committee and the polls.
- Quality over record – Beat a team that keeps winning, and that win grows all season. This explains why teams move in weeks they don’t play, and in the ACC, Virginia Tech is an example this week.
- Every conference starts equal – Every conference begins at zero and earn their status based on non-conference football games.
- No running up the score – As indicated the margin caps at 21 points and that is a protective filter until play-by-play data is available moving forward. Every score is adjusted for the opponent and for home field.
- A thin resume layer – Self explanatory.
- Seat the 24 – Completely based on merit with a clearly defined guideline for the Group of Five. Teams are re-seeded every round.
Football
Miami won but yet dropped from 5th to 9th in this iteration. The Canes rating barely changed (14.6 to 14.4). Ole Miss, Texas and Utah passed Miami with blowouts while the Canes won by three on the road. Miami is now 0.1 points behind Utah for the last bye. A win at Notre Dame almost certainly moves the team above the line.
Wake Forest is in the field now. It moved from 25th to 20th, so the ACC now has two bids in the College Football Playoffs.
The model and the eye test disagree in the middle. LFI has Pitt 5th in the ACC and Clemson up 11 spots, mostly because of their opponents’ ratings. Our latest ACC Power Rankings have Pitt at No. 9.
The big ACC drops are Florida State down 14 spots, and Boston College and Cal each fell 12.
Football – The LFI Field Of 24
Four teams that lost (Ohio State, Nebraska, Oklahoma State, Arizona) slid, and the teams that won big moved up. Along with Wake Forest getting in is Baylor.
As ACC Nation clearly covers the ACC we’re keenly aware of how much the following will stick in your craw. The SEC holds 10 of 24 spots and the top four seeds. It comes down to the conference effect. The SEC rose from our baseline of zero to +10.0, and the ACC’s fell to +2.3 from our initial off-line run. The ACC controls it’s own destiny in football. Win against higher rated teams and the conference as a whole benefits. The higher the number the more likely teams are to enter and ascend the 24-team playoff ratings.
The loudest question out there at the moment, why is a 6-2 LSU at No. 1, ahead of three unbeatens? This is the ‘prove it’ principle. We look at the game-by-game breakdowns. At present, LSU is proving it based on the data. It will be interesting to see how the LFI plays out from week to week and which teams deliver the goods in the playoffs.
Once the CFP ratings are released we’ll compare and contrast the LFI numbers with them side-by-side.
