ESPN Football Power Index

ESPN Power Football Index

ESPN Football Power Index

We’re on the back half of the football season for the ACC and Notre Dame. This is where things take on an extra level of seriousness as teams begin to see bowl bids on the horizon. The ESPN Football Power Index along with Team Efficiency numbers help to pin down how teams are performing.

We take the teams that are in the top 40 of both categories and lay out the numbers.

Be sure you look at how teams are ranked in this week’s AP Top 25, too. A quick look at both the Top 25 and FPI will go a long way in giving you an idea if a team will hold up against an opponent.

As always, we like to point out that the numbers are black and white. Life is multiple shades of gray (or grey) and the human factor can never be accurately portrayed until after the fact.

For comparison purposes we have the numbers from October 10 and 17 to look at and we’ll throw in some analysis, too.


ESPN Football Power Index – ACC Nation Podcast


Here are the numbers from October 10.

RANK TEAM CONF% FPI
3 CLEM 54.6 24.1
10 ND 19.8
13 MIA 30.3 17
14 FSU 16.8
17 NC ST 13.1
19 VT 12.3
26 LOU 10.6
27 GT 10.2
33 WF 8
36 DUK 6.2

Now, here’s a look at the updated FPI from October 17.

RANK TEAM CONF% FPI
4 CLEM 33.4 22.2
8 ND 19.7
14 FSU 16.9
15 MIA 39.5 16.6
17 NC ST 20.2 14
19 VT 12.3
24 GT 10.4
26 LOU 8.8
33 WF 7.7
39 DUKE 6.3

As you can see by comparing the numbers, Clemson took a big hit on winning the conference championship after the loss to Syracuse. Is that realistic? Probably not.

Miami taking over the driver’s seat in that category after a razor thin win over Georgia Tech isn’t any more ideal.

We are talking computer simulation runs which are black and white. The reality is somewhere in that proverbial gray zone where the human factor comes into play.

For our money, Clemson is still the front runner with Miami beginning to nip at their heels.

NC State is fairly represented in the numbers.

Speaking of numbers  here is an updated view of how teams in the top 40 will finish their season.

WIN-LOSS

  • Clemson  10.4-2.1
  • Notre Dame  9.2-2.8
  • Florida State  6.5-4.6
  • Miami  10.1-1.8
  • NC State  9.1-3.3
  • Virginia Tech  9.0-3.1
  • Georgia Tech  5.8-5.2
  • Louisville  6.8-5.2
  • Wake Forest  6.6-5.4
  • Duke  6.5-5.5

These are numbers that play an important role in determining teams that will receive bowl bids. There are two teams outside the top 40 list we use that are in position to receive bowl bids. Be sure to check out Jerry Palm’s latest projections by using the link at the top of the page.

  • Syracuse  5.7-6.3
  • Virginia  7.1-5.0



ESPN Football Power Index – The Pick


Team Efficiency numbers from October 10.

RANK TEAM OFF DEF SPCL TOTAL
7 CLEM 78.1 90.8 40.5 88.8
9 ND 80.5 82.8 44.7 85.8
12 MIA 85 74.2 45.5 83.8
20 WF 61.2 78.3 49.5 74.4
21 NC ST 84.4 54.7 30.8 73.8
23 GT 73.7 73 21 72.8
24 VT 54.2 73.3 72.5 71.5
25 LOU 75.6 64.7 60.5 71.5
34 FSU 45 80.5 49.8 66.9
36 DUK 43 87.8 34.6 65.9

Teams with green numbers in the Total category are continuing to improve. Teams with numbers in red have seen a diminished level of performance. Team in black has not changed – Bye Week.

RANK TEAM OFF DEF SPCL TOTAL
9 ND 79.5 83.3 44.6 85.6
10 CLEM 74.2 87.1 42.2 85.2
14 MIA 82.1 74.2 35.9 80.7
18 NC ST 82.3 61.4 38.3 76
19 GT 73.3 70.5 39.7 74.5
20 WF 60.9 78.2 49.4 74.1
23 VT 53.3 74 72.5 71.5
25 FSU 55.5 78.1 50.3 70.8
37 DUKE 45.6 82.3 36 64
38 LOU 77.4 39.9 57.7 63.8

ESPN Football Power Index – ACC Nation Power Poll


Notre Dame has a head of steam rolling into their headline game against USC this weekend. The Irish have illustrated continuity across the three critical areas in team efficiency.

NC State has certainly been a team to keep an eye on and their numbers indicate growth in execution across the board.

Georgia Tech is steady when it comes to offense and defense. The improvement, which indicates a well rounded team, comes on special teams where the improvement is significant.

And, just when everyone seemed ready to write off the Seminoles, just like the Phoenix, Florida State is rising.

Looking at the football schedule and comparing numbers, there appears to be some black and white mismatches. Before you pick which team will win this weekend, remember the gray.