ESPN Football Power Index

ESPN Football Power Index

ESPN Football Power Index

It’s the midway point in the football season for the ACC and Notre Dame. If you’re big on stats, the ESPN Football Power Index along with Team Efficiency numbers is always a quick fix.

We take the teams that are in the top 40 of both categories and lay out the numbers.

You may want to take a look at how teams are ranked in this week’s AP Top 25. A quick look at both the Top 25 and FPI may raise an eyebrow or two. Which of the two rankings do you feel are a more accurate portrayal of a team’s performance?

There have been a number of surprises along the way and there’s no reason to believe that a few more aren’t waiting.

For comparison purposes we have the numbers from September 28 and October 10 to look at and we’ll throw in some analysis, too.


ESPN Football Power Index – ACC Nation Podcast


Here are the numbers from September.

RANKTEAMCONF%FPI
4CLEM5823.8
10ND17.3
12FSU4.117.2
18VT11.313.9
21NC ST9.312.4
22MIA8.112.3
23LOU0.711.4
26DUK6.310.7
31GT1.88.7
35WF0.46.8
38UNC0.16

Now, let’s take a look at the update from October.

RANKTEAMCONF%FPI
3CLEM54.624.1
10ND19.8
13MIA30.317
14FSU16.8
17NC ST13.1
19VT12.3
26LOU10.6
27GT10.2
33WF8
36DUK6.2

Clemson, for the most part, remains steady. When you’re almost at the top already the numbers typically don’t fluctuate unless you’ve lost a game. The numbers say the Tigers will finish with an 11.7-1.0 record. We’ll let the serious statisticians argue over those numbers.

The biggest movement in the FPI comes from Miami. The Hurricanes were ranked #22 and had a 8.1% chance of winning the conference title in September. After getting back into their schedule they’ve risen to #13. They now have a 30.3% chance of grabbing the ACC. Miami is projected to finish with a 9.8-2.0 record.

WIN-LOSS

  • Notre Dame  9.2-2.8
  • Florida State  6.2-4.9
  • NC State  8.7-3.6
  • Virginia Tech  9.0-3.1
  • Louisville  8.0-4.0
  • Georgia Tech  6.0-5.1
  • Wake Forest  6.7-5.3
  • Duke  6.8-5.2

These are numbers that play an important role in determining teams that will receive bowl bids.



ESPN Football Power Index – The Pick


Now, let’s take a look at Team Efficiency. We’ll start with numbers from September.

RANKTEAMOFFDEFSPCLTOTAL
10CLEM77.187.535.885.6
13DUK6096.325.181.8
14ND80.67444.181.1
16WF64.17965.278.9
22VT6274.471.876.1
28NC ST82.957.725.673.1
29LOU73.76150.271.5
30GT78.866.413.571.5
37MIA82.651.236.167.2

Moving forward into our October numbers you can see a significant shift among teams.

RANKTEAMOFFDEFSPCLTOTAL
7CLEM78.190.840.588.8
9ND80.582.844.785.8
12MIA8574.245.583.8
20WF61.278.349.574.4
21NC ST84.454.730.873.8
23GT73.7732172.8
24VT54.273.372.571.5
25LOU75.664.760.571.5
34FSU4580.549.866.9
36DUK4387.834.665.9

Teams with green numbers in the Total category are continuing to improve. Teams with numbers in red have not performed well in the last few weeks.


ESPN Football Power Index – ACC Nation Power Poll